Wednesday 6 May 2015

Why Daimler's Self-Driving Truck Will Quietly But Radically Disrupt Everything



German automaker Daimler has unveiled the world's first self-driving truck authorized for use on public roads, and will be launched at the Hoover Dam in Nevada. Full autonomous trucks will not, however, be authorized until 2025 under current restrictions. 

But how will that impact the transportation industry? The rationale is two-fold: 1) the self-driving truck will save 5% fuel costs, and 2) drivers of the trucks will have less stress and thus greater satisfaction. 

Is that naive? Won't self-driving trucks inevitably and seriously disrupt the entire transportation industry, killing jobs, and leaving drivers out in the cold without work? 

And what about safety on roads with human-driven vehicles? Will driving under less stressful conditions on the road be just as bad, if not worse, than having too much? Suppose the self-driving truck is so easy that one loses concentration and is not able to react as quickly than those ahead in a human-driven truck? 

How will self-driving trucks get along with human-driven vehicles? Will the response time be adaptive rather than simply default, that is, how will the truck account for the spontaneity of human error? 

There are also technological problems, such as computer failure. Imagine barrelling down the 401 with a large load and the sensors cut out. Or, worse yet, your system gets hacked into and the truck is being controlled by a third party (21st Century road warriors). 

In spite of these possible set-backs, there are some good things about these trucks, such as the ability for loads to be shipped in off-hours and overnight when traffic isn't as congested, freeing up highways during the day. 

We are living in a world where such technological disruptions are commonplace; and part of living in the 21st Century is learning to navigate these issues--being aware of them and finding innovations to improve upon them. 

However, these disruptive technologies will not only change the industry of transportation, but will also change the way we drive; for many experts maintain that eventually the sensors will be so sophisticated that autonomous vehicles will be safer than human-driven ones, which could mean, eventually, human drivers will be prohibited from driving vehicles then considered 'vintage'. 

The implications of this for vehicle insurance companies is astounding, for they will have to move away from individual vehicle insurance to insuring larger companies for sensor malfunction, operating system hackings, etc. These contracts will go to the large companies that are already well-established in such areas, which means smaller ones will eventually get devoured by them. 

There are myriad other ways in which this simple unveiling will disrupt our world. The question is, how will we adjust and adapt to it?

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